Early warning & anticipation

Delves into trust in forecast and risk information, early warning systems and actors

The Community Trust Index (CTI) for Early Warning Systems is a vital tool designed to enhance trust in early warning systems (EWS) within humanitarian contexts. In an unpredictable world, effective EWS save lives and protect livelihoods. However, their success is determined by community trust, translating directly into community action. When communities trust EWS, they are more likely to value risk knowledge, take warnings seriously, and translate alerts into anticipatory action and response. This creates a cycle of trust where actors can engage with communities and take actions effectively, ultimately saving lives and fostering resilience.

Objectives

The Early Warning and Anticipation module provides decision-makers with data to enhance Early Warning Systems (EWS) and support the Sendai Framework and ambitions of the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative. It can be used by actors responsible for EWS at different levels providing an understanding of the barriers and enablers of effective EWS. It enables key actors to identify areas of improvement crucial for any future warnings and as well as to include community perspectives into the system.

The Community Trust Index represents a pivotal step towards creating more effective, people-centred, early warning systems, and providing quality community data to support monitoring and evaluation frameworks. In particular, it will provide quality community data to support the EW4All initiative and the target G of the Sendai Framework to “Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030”. This module can be used as a part of several different assessment exercises or other research, monitoring and evaluation activities.

About Early Warning for All

Framework

The questionnaire is structured around the four pillars of an effective EWS. Within each pillar, six to seven questions are included according to the three competencies and three values that underpin trust. Each pillar includes a set of close-ended questions and one open-ended question, complemented by validation questions and socio demographic questions.
RIsk Knowledge The actor or institution responsible for understanding and managing risk information
Observation and Forecasting The actor responsible for monitoring hazards and generating forecasts
Warning Dissemination and Communication The system and actor(s) responsible for issuing alerts and communicating with the public
Preparedness and Response The actor(s) and actions linked to preparedness and response activities once warnings are issued
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